Table 3

Adjusted risk of mortality 2004/2005–2013/2014, probit regressions with average marginal effects

30-Day mortality7-Day mortalityIn-hospital mortality
VariablesAME†SE‡AMESEAMESE
Admission time
Weekday day Ref. Ref. Ref.
Weekday night0.003***(0.001)0.003***(0.001)0.003***(0.001)
Weekend day§0.004***(0.001)0.003***(0.001)0.003**(0.002)
Weekend night§0.006***(0.001)0.005***(0.001)0.005***(0.001)
Case-mix variables
Age band 17–25 Ref. Ref. Ref.
Age band 26–35−0.001(0.002)−0.001(0.001)−0.003(0.002)
Age band 36–450.005**(0.002)0.001(0.001)0.001(0.002)
Age band 46–550.012***(0.002)0.005***(0.001)0.005**(0.002)
Age band 56–650.025***(0.003)0.012***(0.002)0.015***(0.003)
Age band 66–750.033***(0.003)0.016***(0.002)0.022***(0.003)
Age band 76–850.051***(0.003)0.023***(0.002)0.038***(0.003)
Age band 85+0.080***(0.004)0.033***(0.003)0.067***(0.005)
Gender, male Ref. Ref. Ref.
Gender, female−0.003***(0.001)−0.001(0.001)−0.001(0.001)
Gender, not stated−0.005(0.014)−0.001(0.011)0.001(0.016)
Ethnicity, white Ref. Ref. Ref.
Ethnicity, mixed−0.013(0.009)−0.001(0.006)−0.010(0.008)
Ethnicity, Asian−0.015***(0.004)−0.007***(0.002)−0.013***(0.003)
Ethnicity, black−0.016***(0.005)−0.011***(0.003)−0.015***(0.005)
Ethnicity, other0.016***(0.005)0.013***(0.004)0.018***(0.005)
Ethnicity, not stated0.032***(0.007)0.022***(0.005)0.030***(0.006)
IMD quintile-1 (most affluent) Ref. Ref. Ref.
IMD quintile-20.001(0.002)−0.000(0.001)−0.000(0.001)
IMD quintile-30.002*(0.001)0.002(0.001)0.001(0.001)
IMD quintile-40.002(0.001)−0.000(0.001)−0.000(0.001)
IMD quintile-5 (most deprived)0.004***(0.001)0.002*(0.001)0.003**(0.001)
IMD quintile-missing0.012***(0.002)0.005***(0.001)0.010***(0.002)
Charlson Index0.002***(0.000)0.001***(0.000)0.001***(0.000)
Number of diagnosis0.002***(0.000)−0.000(0.000)0.003***(0.000)
Number of procedures−0.001*(0.000)−0.002***(0.000)0.001***(0.000)
Palliative care0.150***(0.013)0.038***(0.005)0.107***(0.009)
Number of emergency admissions in the previous 1 year (365 days)−0.002***(0.000)−0.000**(0.000)−0.001***(0.000)
Admission method, emergency A&E Ref. Ref. Ref.
Admission method, emergency transfer from other provider−0.015***(0.003)−0.013***(0.002)−0.013***(0.003)
Admission method, emergency domicile−0.008(0.017)0.000(0.000)−0.025***(0.009)
Admission method, emergency general practitioner refer0.007***(0.002)−0.006***(0.002)0.003(0.003)
Admission method, emergency outpatient−0.017***(0.003)−0.017***(0.002)−0.016***(0.003)
Admission method, emergency antenatal0.027(0.026)0.011(0.025)0.000(0.000)
Admission method, emergency postnatal0.000(0.000)0.000(0.000)0.000(0.000)
Admission method, non-emergency transfer from other provider−0.014***(0.004)−0.014***(0.003)−0.015***(0.004)
Transfer to other hospitals−0.020***(0.005)−0.037***(0.004)
Financial year 2004/2005 Ref. Ref. Ref.
Financial year 2005/2006−0.012***(0.004)−0.002(0.002)−0.015***(0.004)
Financial year 2006/2007−0.011***(0.003)−0.003*(0.002)−0.020***(0.003)
Financial year 2007/2008−0.010**(0.004)0.001(0.003)−0.023***(0.006)
Financial year 2008/2009−0.023***(0.004)−0.005(0.003)−0.042***(0.005)
Financial year 2009/2010−0.029***(0.005)−0.006*(0.003)−0.049***(0.005)
Financial year 2010/2011−0.036***(0.004)−0.009**(0.004)−0.059***(0.005)
Financial year 2011/2012−0.039***(0.004)−0.010***(0.004)−0.064***(0.005)
Financial year 2012/2013−0.038***(0.004)−0.009***(0.003)−0.063***(0.005)
Financial year 2013/2014−0.042***(0.004)−0.012***(0.004)−0.067***(0.005)
Diagnosis group dummies Yes Yes Yes
Admission source dummies Yes Yes Yes
Admission month dummies Yes Yes Yes
C statistic0.880.870.90
Pseudo-R2 0.280.230.31
Observations241 338237 091242 693
  • †Average marginal effect. ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.1.

  • ‡Robust SEs corrected for clustering around consultant in parentheses.

  • §Including public holidays.

  • AME, average marginal effects; IMD, Index of Multiple Deprivation.