Adjusted risk of mortality 2004/2005–2013/2014, probit regressions with average marginal effects
| 30-Day mortality | 7-Day mortality | In-hospital mortality | ||||
| Variables | AME† | SE‡ | AME | SE | AME | SE |
| Admission time | ||||||
| Weekday | Ref. | Ref. | Ref. | |||
| Weekend§ | 0.004*** | (0.001) | 0.003*** | (0.001) | 0.003*** | (0.001) |
| Case-mix variables | ||||||
| Age band 17–25 | Ref. | Ref. | Ref. | |||
| Age band 26–35 | −0.001 | (0.002) | −0.001 | (0.001) | −0.003 | (0.002) |
| Age band 36–45 | 0.005** | (0.002) | 0.001 | (0.001) | 0.001 | (0.002) |
| Age band 46–55 | 0.012*** | (0.002) | 0.005*** | (0.001) | 0.005** | (0.002) |
| Age band 56–65 | 0.025*** | (0.003) | 0.012*** | (0.002) | 0.015*** | (0.003) |
| Age band 66–75 | 0.033*** | (0.003) | 0.015*** | (0.002) | 0.022*** | (0.003) |
| Age band 76–85 | 0.051*** | (0.003) | 0.023*** | (0.002) | 0.038*** | (0.003) |
| Age band 85+ | 0.079*** | (0.004) | 0.033*** | (0.003) | 0.067*** | (0.005) |
| Gender, male | Ref. | Ref. | Ref. | |||
| Gender, female | −0.003*** | (0.001) | −0.001 | (0.001) | −0.001 | (0.001) |
| Gender, not stated | −0.005 | (0.014) | −0.001 | (0.011) | 0.001 | (0.016) |
| Ethnicity, white | Ref. | Ref. | Ref. | |||
| Ethnicity, mixed | −0.013 | (0.009) | −0.001 | (0.006) | −0.010 | (0.008) |
| Ethnicity, Asian | −0.015*** | (0.004) | −0.007*** | (0.002) | −0.013*** | (0.003) |
| Ethnicity, black | −0.016*** | (0.005) | −0.011*** | (0.003) | −0.015*** | (0.005) |
| Ethnicity, other | 0.016*** | (0.005) | 0.013*** | (0.004) | 0.018*** | (0.005) |
| Ethnicity, not stated | 0.032*** | (0.007) | 0.022*** | (0.005) | 0.030*** | (0.006) |
| IMD quintile-1 (most affluent) | Ref. | Ref. | Ref. | |||
| IMD quintile-2 | 0.001 | (0.002) | −0.000 | (0.001) | −0.000 | (0.001) |
| IMD quintile-3 | 0.002* | (0.001) | 0.002 | (0.001) | 0.001 | (0.001) |
| IMD quintile-4 | 0.002 | (0.001) | −0.000 | (0.001) | −0.000 | (0.001) |
| IMD quintile-5 (most deprived) | 0.004*** | (0.001) | 0.002* | (0.001) | 0.003** | (0.001) |
| IMD quintile-missing | 0.012*** | (0.002) | 0.005*** | (0.001) | 0.010*** | (0.002) |
| Charlson Index | 0.002*** | (0.000) | 0.001*** | (0.000) | 0.001*** | (0.000) |
| Number of diagnosis | 0.002*** | (0.000) | −0.000 | (0.000) | 0.003*** | (0.000) |
| Number of procedures | −0.001* | (0.000) | −0.002*** | (0.000) | 0.001*** | (0.000) |
| Palliative care | 0.150*** | (0.013) | 0.038*** | (0.005) | 0.107*** | (0.009) |
| Number of emergency admissions in the previous 1 year (365 days) | −0.002*** | (0.000) | −0.000** | (0.000) | −0.001*** | (0.000) |
| Admission method, emergency A&E | Ref. | Ref. | Ref. | |||
| Admission method, emergency transfer from other provider | −0.015*** | (0.003) | −0.013*** | (0.002) | −0.014*** | (0.003) |
| Admission method, emergency domicile | −0.009 | (0.017) | 0.000 | (0.000) | −0.026*** | (0.009) |
| Admission method, emergency general practitioner refer | 0.006** | (0.002) | −0.007*** | (0.002) | 0.002 | (0.003) |
| Admission method, emergency outpatient | −0.018*** | (0.003) | −0.018*** | (0.002) | −0.017*** | (0.003) |
| Admission method, emergency antenatal | 0.025 | (0.026) | 0.010 | (0.025) | 0.000 | (0.000) |
| Admission method, emergency postnatal | 0.000 | (0.000) | 0.000 | (0.000) | 0.000 | (0.000) |
| Admission method, non-emergency transfer from other provider | −0.015*** | (0.004) | −0.015*** | (0.003) | −0.016*** | (0.004) |
| Transfer to other hospitals | −0.020*** | (0.005) | −0.037*** | (0.004) | ||
| Financial year 2004/2005 | Ref. | Ref. | Ref. | |||
| Financial year 2005/2006 | −0.012*** | (0.004) | −0.002 | (0.002) | −0.015*** | (0.004) |
| Financial year 2006/2007 | −0.011*** | (0.003) | −0.003* | (0.002) | −0.020*** | (0.003) |
| Financial year 2007/2008 | −0.010** | (0.004) | 0.001 | (0.003) | −0.023*** | (0.006) |
| Financial year 2008/2009 | −0.023*** | (0.004) | −0.005 | (0.003) | −0.042*** | (0.005) |
| Financial year 2009/2010 | −0.029*** | (0.005) | −0.006* | (0.003) | −0.048*** | (0.005) |
| Financial year 2010/2011 | −0.035*** | (0.004) | −0.009** | (0.004) | −0.059*** | (0.005) |
| Financial year 2011/2012 | −0.039*** | (0.004) | −0.010*** | (0.004) | −0.064*** | (0.005) |
| Financial year 2012/2013 | −0.037*** | (0.004) | −0.009*** | (0.003) | −0.062*** | (0.005) |
| Financial year 2013/2014 | −0.042*** | (0.004) | −0.011*** | (0.004) | −0.067*** | (0.005) |
| Diagnosis group dummies | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||
| Admission source dummies | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||
| Admission month dummies | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||
| C statistic | 0.88 | 0.87 | 0.90 | |||
| Pseudo-R2 | 0.28 | 0.23 | 0.31 | |||
| Observations | 241 338 | 237 091 | 242 693 | |||
†Average marginal effect. ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.1.
‡Robust SEs corrected for clustering around consultant in parentheses.
§Including public holidays.
AME, average marginal effects; IMD, Index of Multiple Deprivation.