Mean probabilities assigned to each outcome (Experiment 1)
| Experimental group | n | Outcome provided | Outcome evaluated | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||
| Note: The actual outcomes are numbers 1, 1, 4, and 2 for Events A, B, C, and D, respectively. Outlined cells are those with After probabilities of reported outcomes. | ||||||
| Event A: British-Gurka struggle (English-speaking subjects) | ||||||
| Before | 20 | None | 33.8 | 21.3 | 32.3 | 12.3 |
| After | 20 | 1 | 57.2 | 14.3 | 15.3 | 13.4 |
| 20 | 2 | 30.3 | 38.4 | 20.4 | 10.5 | |
| 20 | 3 | 25.7 | 17.0 | 48.0 | 9.9 | |
| 20 | 4 | 33.0 | 15.8 | 24.3 | 27.0 | |
| Event B: Near-riot in Atlanta (subjects with knowledge of statistics) | ||||||
| Before | 20 | None | 11.2 | 30.8 | 43.8 | 14.2 |
| After | 20 | 11 | 30.6 | 25.8 | 23.3 | 20.3 |
| 20 | 2 | 5.5 | 51.8 | 24.3 | 18.5 | |
| 20 | 3 | 3.9 | 23.9 | 50.8 | 21.4 | |
| 20 | 4 | 16.7 | 31.9 | 23.4 | 27.9 | |
| Event C: Mrs Dewar in therapy | ||||||
| Before | 19 | None | 26.6 | 15.8 | 23.4 | 34.4 |
| After | 13 | 11 | 43.1 | 13.9 | 17.3 | 25.8 |
| 17 | 2 | 26.5 | 23.2 | 13.4 | 36.9 | |
| 16 | 3 | 30.6 | 14.1 | 34.1 | 21.3 | |
| 17 | 4 | 21.2 | 10.2 | 22.6 | 46.1 | |
| Event D: George in therapy | ||||||
| Before | 17 | None | 27.4 | 26.9 | 39.4 | 6.3 |
| After | 18 | 11 | 33.6 | 20.8 | 37.8 | 8.0 |
| 18 | 2 | 22.4 | 41.8 | 28.9 | 7.1 | |
| 20 | 3 | 20.5 | 22.3 | 50.0 | 7.3 | |
| 17 | 4 | 30.6 | 19.5 | 37.7 | 12.3 | |