Logistic regression models for risk of complaints within 2 years, and Predicted Risk Of New Event (PRONE) scoring system, derived from the ORs in model 2
| Model 1 OR (95% CI) | Model 2 OR (95% CI) | Model 3 OR (95% CI) | PRONE score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Complaint number | ||||
| 1 (ref) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0 |
| 2 | 1.29 (1.11 to 1.49) | 1.35 (1.20 to 1.51) | 1.82 (1.66 to 2.00) | 1 |
| 3 | 1.85 (1.56 to 2.20) | 1.91 (1.65 to 2.22) | 2.76 (2.43 to 3.14) | 2 |
| 4 | 2.48 (2.01 to 3.07) | 2.64 (2.18 to 3.20) | 3.98 (3.35 to 4.72) | 4 |
| 5 | 3.29 (2.51 to 4.31) | 3.41 (2.67 to 4.35) | 5.36 (4.27 to 6.73) | 5 |
| 6 | 4.35 (3.11 to 6.10) | 4.30 (3.15 to 5.87) | 6.88 (5.11 to 9.25) | 5 |
| 7 | 4.76 (3.08 to 7.34) | 5.01 (3.35 to 7.49) | 8.51 (5.85 to 12.4) | 6 |
| 8 | 4.44 (2.78 to 7.08) | 4.79 (3.08 to 7.43) | 7.98 (5.23 to 12.2) | 6 |
| 9 | 6.51 (3.38 to 12.53) | 6.73 (3.68 to 12.3) | 11.1 (6.19 to 19.8) | 7 |
| 10+ | 18.89 (9.76 to 36.56) | 18.3 (10.2 to 32.8) | 33.8 (19.1 to 59.7) | 11 |
| Doctor's specialty | ||||
| Anaesthesia (ref) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0 | |
| Radiology | 1.00 (0.47 to 2.12) | 1.06 (0.51 to 2.22) | 0 | |
| Other specialties | 0.97 (0.63 to 1.49) | 1.12 (0.76 to 1.64) | 0 | |
| Internal medicine | 1.40 (1.04 to 1.88) | 1.50 (1.12 to 1.99) | 1 | |
| Ophthalmology | 1.36 (0.94 to 1.96) | 1.58 (1.12 to 2.23) | 2 | |
| General practice | 1.61 (1.23 to 2.10) | 1.75 (1.35 to 2.26) | 2 | |
| Psychiatry | 1.94 (1.44 to 2.62) | 2.00 (1.49 to 2.68) | 3 | |
| Orthopaedic surgery | 2.02 (1.49 to 2.74) | 2.26 (1.68 to 3.03) | 3 | |
| Other surgery | 2.11 (1.56 to 2.86) | 2.30 (1.72 to 3.09) | 3 | |
| General surgery | 2.11 (1.51 to 2.95) | 2.46 (1.79 to 3.38) | 3 | |
| Obstetrics and gynaecology | 2.36 (1.73 to 3.23) | 2.51 (1.85 to 3.39) | 3 | |
| Dermatology | 2.73 (1.89 to 3.96) | 3.15 (2.16 to 4.59) | 4 | |
| Plastic surgery | 3.98 (2.84 to 5.57) | 4.44 (3.21 to 6.13) | 6 | |
| Time since previous complaint | ||||
| 1–2 years (ref) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0 | |
| 6 months to 1 year | 1.23 (1.04 to 1.47) | 1.20 (1.02 to 1.43) | 1 | |
| Less than 6 months | 1.68 (1.44 to 1.95) | 1.77 (1.53 to 2.04) | 2 | |
| Doctor's sex | ||||
| Female (ref) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0 | |
| Male | 1.45 (1.27 to 1.66) | 1.51 (1.33 to 1.71) | 2 | |
| Doctor's age | ||||
| 22–34 years (ref) | 1.00 | |||
| 35–65 years | 1.41 (1.10 to 1.82) | |||
| Location of practice | ||||
| Urban (ref) | 1.00 | |||
| Rural | 1.12 (1.01 to 1.24) | |||
| Complaint issue | ||||
| Other issue (ref.) | 1.00 | |||
| Clinical care | 1.02 (0.9 to 1.16) | |||
| C-statistic (adjusted for optimism) | 0.69 | 0.70 | 0.66 | |