Table 3

Adjusted odds of death per day of elective procedure for our multilevel model and the model of Aylin et al2

Aylin et al2Multilevel mixed model
OR (95% CI)OR (95% CI)
Gender 
Male1.03 (1.01 to 1.06)1.05 (1.01 to 1.10)
Female11
Age group (years) 
<2011
20–291.06 (0.90 to 1.25)1.05 (0.85 to 1.30)
30–391.22 (1.06 to 1.39)1.24 (1.04 to 1.42)
40–491.85 (1.66 to 2.07)1.84 (1.63 to 2.15)
50–592.69 (2.44 to 2.98)2.75 (2.39 to 3.01)
60–693.62 (3.28 to 3.99)3.67 (3.01 to 4.10)
≥706.02 (5.47 to 6.62)6.00 (5.35 to 6.72)
Ethnicity 
White11
Others1.06 (1.03 to 1.10)1.08 (1.02 to 1.12)
Charlson Index 
011
1–31.13 (1.06 to 1.20)1.15 (1.05 to 1.26)
4–61.45 (1.39 to 1.52)1.55 (1.45 to 1.68)
≥74.34 (4.21 to 4.47)4.40 (4.25 to 4.55)
Deprivation Index 
111
21.02 (0.96 to 1.04)1.00 (0.95 to 1.05)
31.00 (0.97 to 1.05)1.01 (0.94 to 1.07)
41.01 (0.97 to 1.05)1.01 (0.96 to 1.04)
51.01 (0.97 to 1.05)1.01 (0.96 to 1.04)
61.32 (1.13 to 1.55)1.43 (1.23 to 1.60)
Procedure risk quintile 
011
12.89 (2.51 to 3.31)2.91 (2.49 to 3.44)
24.37 (3.83 to 4.89)4.40 (3.80 to 4.95)
36.84 (6.02 to 7.77)6.95 (6.12 to 7.99)
430.02 (26.50 to 34.01)29.01 (25.01 to 35.67)
Previous admissions 
011
1–21.69 (1.65 to 1.74)1.65 (1.60 to 1.79)
≥32.71 (2.60 to 2.82)2.84 (2.70 to 2.91)
Method of admission 
Waiting list11
Booked1.33 (1.29 to 1.36)1.34 (1.27 to 1.38)
Planned2.02 (1.96 to 2.09)2.04 (1.97 to 2.13)
Year of discharge 
20081.16 (1.12 to 1.19)1.20 (1.15 to 1.25)
20091.09 (1.06 to 1.13)1.05 (1.01 to 1.10)
201011
Day of procedure 
Monday11
Tuesday1.07 (1.03 to 1.12)1.08 (1.04 to 1.13)***
Wednesday1.15 (1.11 to 1.20)1.15 (1.11 to 1.20)***
Thursday1.21 (1.16 to 1.26)1.22 (1.17 to 1.27)***
Friday1.44 (1.39 to 1.50)1.48 (1.42 to 1.54)***
Saturday1.96 (1.82 to 2.11)†1.97 (1.83 to 2.12)***
Sunday1.68 (1.52 to 1.87)†1.67 (1.50 to 1.85)***
Consultant seniorityJunior0.95 (0.91 to 0.99), p<0.0001
Mid0.97 (0.94 to 0.99), p<0.0001
Senior
C statistic0.830.88
Covariance parameter estimates (SD)
Hospital0.0077 (0.0028)
Consultant0.4576 (0.0172)
Type 3 tests of fixed effects (Pr>F)
Gender0.0160.050
Age group<0.001<0.001
Ethnicity0.001<0.001
Charlson Index<0.001<0.001
Deprivation Index0.0240.028
Procedure risk quintile<0.001<0.001
Previous admissions<0.001<0.001
Method of admission<0.001<0.001
Year of discharge<0.001<0.001
Day of procedure<0.001<0.001
Consultant seniority0.345
  • ***p<0.0001.

  • †Weekend OR (95% CI): 1.82 (1.7 to 11.94).