Table 2

Predicted probabilities of GP admission (vs A and E admission) and corresponding expected numbers of GP admissions, according to access to general practice, derived from multivariable multilevel logistic regression models

Predicted probabilities of GP admission, by access to general practice*Expected numbers of GP admissions, by access to general practice*†
All conditions10.013.617.919.620.9231 183316 559414 842456 232484 773
 COPD8.711.014.716.217.08 53210 75814 34115 76316 576
 Pneumonia7.710.814.916.617.610 28514 45719 82622 07523 437
 Urinary tract infections10.912.517.418.519.712 02513 76619 10920 39021 690
  • Results adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, urban/rural area of residence, diagnosis risk of general practice admission, the day and month of admission and the region of residence.

  • 60, minimum value of access; <80, lowest access category; ≥95, highest access category; 100, maximum value of access; actual, access as recorded in dataset.

  • *Percentage of GP Patient Survey respondents registered to the patient's general practice who were able to obtain a general practice appointment on their last attempt.

  • †Obtained by multiplying the predicted probabilities by the number of admissions in the sample (all conditions: 2 322 112).

  • A and E, accident and emergency; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; GP, general practitioner.