Clinical and cost outcomes for all participants by phase*
| Clinical/cost outcome | Intervention phase | Control phase | Adjusted comparison†‡§ | |||
| Mean (SD) | Mean (SD) | Original | Transformed | |||
| Δ | ΔL | (95% CI) | P values | |||
| Emergency hospital admissions: all | 0.17 (2.08) | 0.16 (2.16) | 0.005 | 0.011 | (0.010 to 0.013) | <0.001 |
| Risk group 1 | 0.07 (0.75) | 0.06 (0.70) | 0.002 | 0.006 | (0.005 to 0.007) | <0.001 |
| Risk group 2 | 0.37 (3.70) | 0.29 (2.36) | 0.053 | 0.026 | (0.021 to 0.031) | <0.001 |
| Risk group 3 | 1.05 (5.44) | 1.07 (6.90) | -0.035 | 0.061 | (0.045 to 0.076) | <0.001 |
| Risk group 4 | 3.30 (10.92) | 3.48 (15.40) | -0.063 | 0.110 | (0.040 to 0.179) | 0.002 |
| ED attendances: all | 0.36 (1.79) | 0.36 (2.10) | 0.006 | 0.030 | (0.028 to 0.032) | <0.001 |
| Risk group 1 | 0.27 (1.09) | 0.27 (1.10) | 0.005 | 0.026 | (0.024 to 0.029) | <0.001 |
| Risk group 2 | 0.54 (2.75) | 0.49 (1.90) | 0.044 | 0.040 | (0.034 to 0.047) | <0.001 |
| Risk group 3 | 1.17 (4.19) | 1.24 (6.24) | -0.066 | 0.058 | (0.042 to 0.075) | <0.001 |
| Risk group 4 | 3.04 (8.40) | 3.24 (14.44) | -0.134 | 0.074 | (0.005 to 0.143) | 0.035 |
| GP event days: all | 14.08 (32.59) | 14.10 (23.12) | 0.139 | 0.011 | (0.007 to 0.014) | <0.001 |
| Risk group 1 | 9.42 (13.67) | 9.32 (12.55) | 0.044 | 0.023 | (0.018 to 0.027) | <0.001 |
| Risk group 2 | 29.24 (43.28) | 27.78 (24.96) | 0.301 | 0.042 | (0.035 to 0.049) | <0.001 |
| Risk group 3 | 47.19 (109.4) | 46.59 (53.81) | 1.973 | -0.031 | (−0.044 to −0.018) | <0.001 |
| Risk group 4 | 67.30 (68.66) | 78.72 (120.98) | −8.383 | -0.090 | (−0.139 to −0.041) | <0.001 |
| Outpatients visits: all | 1.72 (9.75) | 1.70 (9.98) | 0.035 | 0.055 | (0.051 to 0.058) | <0.001 |
| Risk group 1 | 1.09 (5.63) | 1.02 (4.54) | 0.058 | 0.056 | (0.053 to 0.060) | <0.001 |
| Risk group 2 | 3.42 (11.20) | 3.46 (13.72) | −0.015 | 0.050 | (0.040 to 0.060) | <0.001 |
| Risk group 3 | 6.55 (27.09) | 6.69 (27.85) | −0.006 | 0.025 | (0.005 to 0.046) | 0.016 |
| Risk group 4 | 13.50 (65.56) | 13.83 (59.87) | −0.147 | -0.007 | (−0.076 to 0.063) | 0.851 |
| Days in hospital: all | 0.73 (5.89) | 0.79 (9.93) | −0.010 | 0.029 | (0.026 to 0.031) | <0.001 |
| Risk group 1 | 0.26 (3.32) | 0.28 (7.58) | 0.006 | 0.015 | (0.013 to 0.017) | <0.001 |
| Risk group 2 | 1.62 (8.71) | 1.63 (12.16) | 0.002 | 0.066 | (0.056 to 0.076) | <0.001 |
| Risk group 3 | 5.16 (15.31) | 5.61 (22.57) | −0.148 | 0.150 | (0.120 to 0.180) | <0.001 |
| Risk group 4 | 13.38 (25.91) | 15.15 (33.93) | −1.121 | 0.197 | (0.073 to 0.320) | <0.001 |
| Total health care cost per patient per year in £: all | 1548 (6226) | 1535 (7260) | 76 | (46 to 106) | <0.001 | |
| Risk group 1 | 868 (3896) | 809 (4785) | 61 | (38 to 84) | <0.001 | |
| Risk group 2 | 3267 (9119) | 3183 (9687) | 137 | (22 to 252) | 0.020 | |
| Risk group 3 | 7027 (14 538) | 7429 (17 412) | 134 | (−210 to 477) | 0.446 | |
| Risk group 4 | 15570 (23 733) | 1587 9(26 476) | 908 | (−810 to 2625) | 0.300 | |
*Numbers analysed (intervention/control). All risk groups: 220683/230087; risk group 1: 176214/182952; risk group 2: 32929/34307; risk group 3: 9352/10288; risk group 4: 897/1128.
†The variables are summarised and analysed using event rates per year at risk; online supplementary table 1 shows significant covariates and factors.
‡Covariates considered were: phase; gender; age; PRISM score; WIMD score; WIMD health component on or near 1 February 2013 and seasonality and trend scores for phases.
§The comparison between phases is summarised as additive phase effect in the dependent variable estimated from mixed linear models: Δ in original units and Δ L in log-transformed data with ln(1+y) in place of y.
ED, emergency department; GP, general practitioner; PRISM, predictive risk stratification model; WIMD, Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation.