Table 2

Selected candidate predictors to derive the risk prediction model

VariableData source and measurementPrevalence*Unadjusted OR (95% CI) on univariable analysisAdjusted OR (95% CI) multivariable regression based on backwards elimination based on Akaike Information Criterion (p>0.157)β-Coefficients of variables included in modelP value in multivariable analysis
Age (years)Self-report and medical records81.21.03 (1.00 to 1.06)1.03 (1.00 to 1.05)0.0250.078
Gender (reference female)Self-report and medical records43.3 (male)
56.7 (female)
0.57 (0.38 to 0.86)0.67 (0.43 to 1.04)−0.3980.075
Past ADR†Self-report and medical records31.1%1.79 (1.20 to 2.67)1.61 (1.06 to 2.45)0.4770.026
Antiplatelet drugDischarge summary and medical records. Drugs coded B01AC on WHO-ATC system43.3%1.78 (1.20 to 2.63)1.67 (1.11 to 2.53)0.5150.014
Antidiabetic drugDischarge summary and medical records. Drugs coded A10A or A10B on WHO-ATC system19.7%1.89 (1.22 to 2.94)1.81 (1.12 to 2.91)0.5910.016
Living alone†Self-report and medical records47.9%1.61 (1.08 to 2.38)1.49 (0.98 to 2.27)0.3970.064
Sodium level (mmol/L)Last recorded inpatient biochemistry prior to discharge1370.97 (0.93 to 1.01)0.96 (0.92 to 1.00)−0.0420.069
Number of medicinesDischarge summary and medical records. Total number of medicines at discharge91.08 (1.04 to 1.13)1.06 (1.00 to 1.11)0.0560.033
Hand grip strength (kg)†Southampton Protocol for Adult Grip strength Measurement using the JAMAR Hydraulic Hand Dynamometer93 25.6 (male)
14.3 (female)
0.98 (0.96 to 1.00)Eliminated from model (p>0.157)N/A0.911
Medication compliance aidMulticompartment compliance aid on discharge33.5%1.54 (1.03 to 2.29)Eliminated from model (p>0.157)N/A0.302
Renal impairment (eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 )Last recorded inpatient biochemistry prior to discharge41.9%1.67 (1.13 to 2.47)Eliminated from model (p>0.157)N/A0.216
Charlson Comorbidity IndexDischarge summary and medical records
Total number of diseases defined by Charlson Comorbidity Index94
48.7% (<2)
51.3% (≥2)
1.12 (0.95 to 1.31)Eliminated from model (p>0.157)N/A0.403
  • Past ADR was defined as any adverse drug reaction documented in the medical records and confirmed, where possible, during the process of medicines reconciliation.

  • *Percentage of patients for categorical predictor or average value for continuous predictor.

  • †Incomplete data for predictors; renal impairment (n=56) hand grip strength (n=100), past ADR (n=7), sodium level (n=4), lives alone (n=2).

  • ADR, adverse drug reaction; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; N/A, not available.