Table 4

Estimated national burden associated with primary and secondary care errors (base case scenario and alternative scenarios)

Base case and higher cost scenariosCost (£)Bed- days/yearDeaths
Base case (hospitalisations linked to definitely avoidable primary care ADEs and definitely avoidable ADEs during overnight hospital admissions)
Primary care ADEs2983 673 627136 811
  • 5.2% of hospitalisations due to primary care ADEs; length of stay 5 days

  • 2.3% of ADE admissions directly result in death caused by the ADE

697*
  • 29.2% of ADE admissions result in death for which an ADE was a casual or contributing factor

7958
  • 9% of ADEs definitely avoidable

Secondary care ADEs3014 788 955
  • ADEs during overnight inpatient admissions (14.7% error rate); 4 days added to length of stay for 26.8% of patients with an inpatient ADE; £330 for each day added to admission;

44 815
  • 0.3% of all admissions result in a death casued by an ADE

85
  • 0.038% of all admissions result in a death for which an ADE was a casual or contributing factor

1081*
  • 6.4% of ADEs definitely avoidable

Total (base case)98 462 582181 6261708*
Alternative scenarios
Scenario 1a: (base case+probably avoidable ADEs)
Primary care ADEs29605 298 575989 6975013
  • 5.2% of hospitalisations due to primary care ADEs

  • 2.3% ADEs directly resulting in death

  • 72% of ADEs probably or definitely avoidable

Secondary care ADEs30123 164 262373 2259000
  • ADEs during overnight inpatient admissions

  • Deaths for which inpatient ADE was a contributing factor

  • 53.3% of ADEs probably or definitely avoidable

Total (scenario 1a)728 462 8371 362 92214 013
Scenario 1b: (base case+definitely avoidable ADEs during day case admissions)
Primary care ADEs2983 673 627136 811627
  • Hospitalisations due to primary care ADEs

  • 2.3% of ADEs directly result in death

  • 9% of ADEs definitely avoidable

Secondary care ADEs3028 170 38185 3652058
  • ADEs during all inpatient admissions

  • Deaths for which inpatient ADE was a contributing factor

  • 6.4% of ADEs definitely avoidable

Total (scenario 1b)111 844 008222 1762685
  • *The base case estimate includes deaths in which a primary care ADE caused death and where a secondary care ADE was a contributing factor in death as these were the most robust estimates.

  • ADE, adverse drug event.