Cattaneo et al’s manipulation test at the 92% target for the 18-week referral to treatment target by financial year
| Financial year | Bandwidth estimate* | t-statistic | Robust p value | |
| Left cut-off | Right cut-off | |||
| 2015/16 | 1.59 | 1.42 | 6.32 | <0.001 |
| 2016/17 | 1.34 | 1.34 | 9.22 | <0.001 |
| 2017/18 | 1.35 | 1.22 | 9.53 | <0.001 |
| 2018/19 | 1.60 | 1.55 | 8.66 | <0.001 |
| 2019/20 | 1.31 | 1.28 | 6.77 | <0.001 |
| 2020/21 | 7.13 | 7.13 | 1.86 | 0.063 |
| 2021/22 | 7.68 | 7.68 | 1.70 | 0.090 |
*Bandwidth estimates are a statistical measure of the width of the area around the target threshold where a threshold effect might occur. The bandwidth estimates increase as the number of hospitals near the target decreases (see figure 5).