Table 2

Differences in model predictive performance by metric, patient subgroup minus corresponding reference group

SubgroupNAccuracyFPRFNRBrierC-statisticICI
Mean95% CIMean95% CIMean95% CIMean95% CIMean95% CIMean95% CI
Age (ref: oldest)Third quartile10 3320.099 *(0.087 to 0.110)−0.109 *(−0.123 to −0.096)−0.016(−0.045 to 0.026)−0.039 *(−0.045 to −0.033)0.062 *(0.048 to 0.075)−0.030 *(−0.038 to −0.022)
Second quartile10 3320.172 *(0.159 to 0.181)−0.192 *(−0.203 to −0.179)0.041 *(0.005 to 0.077)−0.063 *(−0.069 to −0.057)0.112 *(0.100 to 0.126)−0.025 *(−0.032 to −0.018)
Youngest10 3320.254 *(0.244 to 0.263)−0.266 *(−0.276 to −0.255)0.333 *(0.285 to 0.379)−0.109 *(−0.114 to −0.104)0.075 *(0.052 to 0.093)−0.035 *(−0.042 to −0.028)
Race (ref: Non-Hispanic white)Asian1646−0.018(−0.048 to 0.006)0.031(−0.005 to 0.062)−0.108 *(−0.189 to −0.022)0.017(0.000 to 0.031)0.025(−0.008 to 0.054)0.022 *(0.003 to 0.041)
Black or African-American14 4280.051 *(0.044 to 0.059)−0.060 *(−0.067 to −0.052)0.049 *(0.023 to 0.078)−0.012 *(−0.017 to −0.008)0.011 *(0.000 to 0.021)−0.004(−0.007 to 0.000)
Ethnicity (ref: Non-Hispanic white)Hispanic12990.032 *(0.008 to 0.054)−0.067 *(−0.087 to −0.048)0.219 *(0.120 to 0.301)0.001(−0.012 to 0.015)0.001(−0.029 to 0.028)0.020 *(0.008 to 0.035)
Sex assigned at birth (ref: male)Female20 8160.030 *(0.020 to 0.038)−0.038 *(−0.046 to −0.030)0.028(0.000 to 0.057)−0.004 *(−0.009 to −0.001)0.015 *(0.005 to 0.026)−0.003(−0.007 to 0.001)
Insurance (ref: Medicare)Managed care11 0820.120 *(0.110 to 0.129)−0.108 *(−0.118 to −0.098)−0.076 *(−0.112 to −0.047)−0.056 *(−0.060 to −0.051)0.099 *(0.088 to 0.108)−0.013 *(−0.018 to −0.008)
Medicaid66760.154 *(0.145 to 0.163)−0.156 *(−0.165 to −0.148)0.158 *(0.111 to 0.208)−0.069 *(−0.073 to −0.065)0.071 *(0.054 to 0.088)−0.019 *(−0.024 to −0.014)
Private38100.113 *(0.102 to 0.125)−0.112 *(−0.126 to −0.100)0.007(−0.044 to 0.055)−0.050 *(−0.056 to −0.043)0.092 *(0.074 to 0.106)−0.013 *(−0.018 to −0.005)
Missing14040.168 *(0.157 to 0.179)−0.170 *(−0.181 to −0.161)0.184 *(0.110 to 0.257)−0.071 *(−0.079 to −0.064)0.115 *(0.093 to 0.138)−0.003(−0.012 to 0.007)
Household income (ref: highest)Third quartile10 2650.029 *(0.016 to 0.041)−0.051 *(−0.064 to −0.036)0.141 *(0.100 to 0.178)−0.001(−0.008 to 0.005)−0.014(−0.028 to 0.003)0.001(−0.005 to 0.007)
Second quartile10 2650.034 *(0.024 to 0.046)−0.055 *(−0.068 to −0.045)0.079 *(0.036 to 0.115)0.003(−0.003 to 0.010)0.011(−0.002 to 0.028)0.009 *(0.002 to 0.015)
Least wealthy10 2660.053 *(0.043 to 0.065)−0.078 *(−0.089 to −0.067)0.187 *(0.144 to 0.223)−0.011 *(−0.016 to −0.007)−0.018 *(−0.032 to −0.003)−0.005 *(−0.01 to 0.000)
Educational attainment (ref: highest)Third quartile10 2760.0120 *(0.002 to 0.022)−0.030 *(−0.042 to −0.018)0.124 *(0.086 to 0.164)0.004(−0.001 to 0.0100)−0.038 *(−0.051 to −0.026)0.003(−0.003 to 0.009)
Second quartile10 2760.026 *(0.014 to 0.038)−0.051 *(−0.062 to −0.039)0.110 *(0.071 to 0.153)0.010 *(0.005 to 0.0160)−0.032 *(−0.048 to −0.015)0.007(0.000 to 0.013)
Lowest10 2760.061 *(0.051 to 0.072)−0.078 *(−0.089 to −0.069)0.135 *(0.092 to 0.173)−0.018 *(−0.023 to −0.013)0.005(−0.007 to 0.019)−0.008 *(−0.014 to −0.003)
  • Age quartiles comprised: youngest (18.1–47.8 years), second quartile (47.8–60.8 years), third quartile (60.8–71.2 years) and oldest (71.2 to ≥90 years). Zip code level median household income quartiles comprised: lowest quartile ($11 269 to $33,117) second quartile ($33 117 to $58 784) third quartile ($58 784 to $80 363) and highest quartile ($80 363 to $225 598). Zip code level educational attainment (proportion of residents ≥25 years old who completed at least a bachelor’s degree, inclusive of all higher levels) quartiles comprised: lowest quartile (0%–21.9%), second quartile (21.9%–28.6%), third quartile (28.6%–48.7%) and highest quartile (48.8%–100%).

  • *indicates that the bootstrapped 95% CI of the subgroup minus reference group difference for each metric does not include zero.

  • FNR, false negative rate; FPR, false positive rate; ICI, integrated calibration index.